What’s the trigger that morphs one into the other? There are protests going on all over the world; some big and international, others small and local (like neighborhood local). The small ones usually get settled relatively quickly. The big ones….
Protests come from real or perceived injustices. Revolutions come from the ruling group not giving a rats ass about what injustices are under protest. Critical mass is achieved, possibly, during a unique event(s).
Currently, there are approximately thirty+ national, massive protests. A few have international status through sympathy protests. A large percentage (~30%) have escalated beyond civil disobedience into skirmishes with those hired to provide order. And of those employed for order have various levels of sympathy for the protesters.
The simplest explanation for protests not morphing to (violent) revolution is that most people don’t get angry enough to hurt/kill. ‘Leaders’, instigators, and outliers can bee a trigger, but the ruling faction can identify these few for early revomal from the field of battle, leaving leadership gaps that downgrade the aggrieved masses.
Decentralized movements (antifa, HK, France) have survived, and even thrived with aggressive action (80/20, property/people). Western governments have responded with restraint; Eastern governments less so. Turkey did have a coup that failed; Arab Spring failed from being nationalistic instead of geographically; and today, China is sending a full-on military response. Tiananmen II.
Time and again it’s been shown that protests and revolutions, without an end-game / exit strategy. It’s also shown that end-games that are discussed by back channels do work to diffuse the problem. But that requires a willingness to negotiate. At this point in time, it appears the whole planet is polarized. So, no negotiations, no prisoners.
Protest, if you believe you can win. Fight, if you know you cannot. Accept the consequences, whatever the outcome. If you do not accept the end game, win or lose, you may not get continuous do-overs. 😔
Rants Unto the Ether 